2025-02-06

Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, many econometrists have warned about a repition of such events. In fact, global financial crises seem to occur roughly once every decade. Looking at the biggest global crises of the last 50 years reinforces the claim:


This is roughly one crisis every 9.4 years. If we look at the global annual GDP growth in % from World Bank Group, we can see strong negative correlation between above crises events and global GDP growth. The data is plotted in following figure:

Fig. 1.1 - Global annual GDP growth in % from 1961 to 2023.

The data is plotted with annual global GDP growth in percentage on the y-axis over the years 1961 to 2023 on the x-axis. When inspecting the curve, we see local minima in the years 1975, 1982, 1991, 2001, 2009, and 2020 with GDP growth of 0.56, 0.36, 1.21, 2.03, -1.34, and -2.88, respectively. An interesting observation from above plot is that seemingly, over time, financial crises become more volatile.

What does this mean for our current economy? And, maybe more importantly, could these observations be mere symptoms from deep-rooted dynamics in our financial system? In his book Crisis Economics Nouriel Roubini writes about causes of financial crises in the context of the current global financial system. In a nutshell (and please don't quote me on this), the instabilities that we regularly observe are rooted in the incentives that the capitalist financial and political system promotes. Especially when looking at the highly globalized economics in the Western Hemisphere, we see speculative and risky practices which are insufficiently mitigated by financial insitutions and governments alike. A recurrent theme throughout the decades has been the speculative bubbles in different financial sectors caused by risky investment practices. Roubini exemplifies some of these events with one of them being the Dot-com bubble. Enabled by rapid adoption of web technologies, at the end of the 1990s, an unprecedented number of tech companies found their way to the stock market. Enthusiastic investors poured assets into these newly established companies just to realize that most of them were not profitable nor mature yet.

History tends to repeat itself. Could there currently be unsustainable investment practices? Like for instance in the EV (electric vehicle) sector in 2024? Tesla, for instance, has the highest market capitalization of all car manufacturers, by a large margin:

Rank Company Market Cap
1 Tesla $760 B
2 Toyota $254 B
3 BYD $183 B
4 ... ...

In contrast, we get a different picture when going by production:

Rank Company Sold Vehicles
1 Toyota 10,160,000
2 Volkswagen Group 9,030,000
3 Hyundai Motor Group 7,230,000
4 ... ...

Many argue that especially Tesla's capitalization is largely inflated due to highly speculative investment practices. Perhaps much of Tesla's value comes from an overly optimistic valuation on the stock market. And what about AI? Every modern tech company and their mother is jumping on the AI hype train. Isn't this an exact replica of the Dot-com bubble, just that this time it's not the broad theme of web technologies but the "AI solves all your problems" promise?

Getting back to the topic of financial practices and crises. From my own observation, our current economic system enourages unsustainable ideologies. There seems to be a consensus, especially around finance cracks, that the only way forward is radical growth. However, in the current system, infinite growth is not possible, at least not with unsustainable and highly speculative practices. These tend to lead to overvaluation, followed by disillusion, a decreased demand, and, finally, the burst. If we want to grow our wealth as a society, we have to grow our economy sustainably, driven by practicality and pragmatism. Not by hedonism. Investments need to be fair and propel quality of life for everyone. I'm getting too philosophical here. To conclude, I highly recommend reading Roubini's book about Crisis Economics. You will find many parallels, in the context of economic dynanics, between the past and present. And maybe you can profit from them yourself ;-]



2025-03-21

I asked myself this question back in 2018 when I started changing my diet from omnivore to vegan. But let's go back a little further. When I was in my early teens, my diet would mainly consist of bread, meat, milk, and sweets. It's a wonder I am still alive :-]
Jokes aside, I heard pretty often that young people can get away with bad lifestyles. Some say it's because they are still growing. Maybe it also has to do with the short exposure to their lifestyle choices so they don't have such a big impact on their body. In any case, for the longest time I had been under the assumption that a meal without meat is not a proper meal. And that vegetables might be healthy but that you don't really need them that much. Well, as many things do, my diet starting changing once I moved out from home. I still took in animal products such as eggs and chicken. But, at least, the consumption of fatty and red meats, milk, and cheeses seemed to decrease. This was simply because your fridge only supplies those foods that you yourself provide. And in this case I didn't buy a whole spectrum of foods but rather selected a few that, I thought, would be the right ones for my lifestyle. That lifestyle, at that time, was predominantly revolved around sports. It still is today, but in a different way. More on that later. Things stayed like that for many of the following years. One thing that changed though, was my perception of what kinds of foods could be more beneficial for the development of my mind and body. Year after year, vegetables replaced many of the not so healthy foods. I started experimenting with protein shakea as a way to replace the missing proteins from my now vegetable-centric diet. One more thing that I observed was that my breakfast was almost vegan. Since I moved out from home I've basically been eating the same breakfast: Oatmeal, in different variations. The first years mainly with fruits and yoghurt, nowadays with various nuts and with plan-based milk. I evolved my diet to be as efficient and nutritious as possible, as I've been steadily increasing my focus on sport, the healthy lifestyle, and a clear mind. Fast forward to 2019 and the only animal products I consumed were chicken and occasionally some milk. My roommate at that time introduced me to delicious vanilla soy milk which slowly replaced the remaining dairy products that I would in some instances still consume. So, there I was, with the only product that was non-vegan being chicken. So, I thought "What if I replaced chicken with a vegan alternative. Then my diet would be fully vegan. I could try it out, just for fun." And I did. I started using Tempeh instead of chicken, and, honestly, it wasn't too bad. Especially when preparing Tempeh properly. Obviously, I didn't fully restrict myself to animal products at that time. So, from time to time, I would buy things like ham sandwiches. That was mostly on weekends as a treat. Since then I consciously reduced even the little treats until I reached a point of full veganism. There might still be instances when I consume animal products, but that is because of politeness when eating self-made meals by others or to reduce food waste. Other than that, my diet is fully vegan! You can see that my transformation was quite natural and didn't happen over night. And for anyone who is contemplating doing something like this, I suggest doing it the same way. That is, taking your time with the change and not being harsh with yourself. Everything takes time, especially changing something so deep-rooted as (eating) habits that also have some social construct embedded in them.

Coming to the main topic. Over the years I read more and more about dieting and foods to incorporate or avoid in your diet. Part of my research also focused on the question if a vegan diet is detrimental to endurance and muscle strength. This is especially interesting for me as I'm physically quite active. A quick search on Google scholar yields some interesting research that could help us understand the impact of vegan diets on performance and overall health for physically active people.
In their paper, Boutros et al. examine endurance and muscle strength differences between vegan and omnivore participants. The authors "studied 56 healthy young lean physically active women [...] classified as vegan (n = 28) or omnivore (n = 28) based on their eating habits. All volunteers followed either a vegan or an omnivore diet for at least 2 years." The results show that "vegans had a significantly higher estimated VO2 max [...] and submaximal endurance time to exhaustion compared with omnivores." Further, "submaximal endurance might be better in vegans compared with omnivores." The authors suggest that "[o]ne potential mechanism that could explain the greater level of endurance performance in vegans may be a higher amount of carbohydrate intake. Evidence has suggested that greater carbohydrate intake may be associated with a better endurance performance and this could be due to higher muscle glycogen storage." Also, "[o]ther potential mechanisms that may explain the better endurance performance in vegans could be due to favorable oxidative stress and inflammation profiles."
In their explorative study, Pohl et al. explain that "existing literature indicates the influence of particularly important nutrients [...] on molecular signaling in tissues and in the long-term different diet regimens may therefore affect exercise performance." Furthermore they suggest that "[v]egan and vegetarian diets possess potentially beneficial properties for the gut microbiome and might therefore influence those mechanisms which may affect in the long-term exercise performance."
Finally, Durkalec-Michalski et al. present an interventional study on "the effect of a four-week vegan diet [...] during a four-week high-intensity functional training [...] on performance, training results and blood biochemical indices" in a mixed group. The authors discuss that "[a]fter the four-week nutritional interventions, individual groups experienced a significant increase in the number of repetitions performed [...] and a significant improvement in the speed and a shorter time of completing training units [...]." Here, the authors mention that, at least for short and intense cross-training exercises, the increased intake of carbohydrates in vegan diets does not seem to have an effect on the performance of the test participants. The authors also mention that "endurance training tends to reduce iron stores" and that "a high prevalence of iron depletion and anaemia [in vegetarian diets] are based on the poor bioavailability of iron from plant sources." However, "iron deficiency anaemia rarely occurs in vegetarian athletes and a mild iron deficiency is not likely to impair performance. Surprisingly, contrary to what is commonly believed, this study did not reveal any significant changes in iron metabolism markers (iron, transferrin, ferritin) between the groups." The authors go on to talk about mixed observations in other studies regarding iron metabolism markers in people with vegan and omnivore diets.

From my personal observations, I can say that, in the six years that I am following a vegan diet, I couldn't observe any direct negative effects from this plant-based nutrition on endurance, muscle strength, and overall well-being. In fact, in these six years my strength and endurance have steadily increased albeit it probably having more to do with regular workouts rather than dramatic changes from the different diet. There have definitely been other observable positive effects, though. Since the change to plant-based products, I noticed that I very rarely get inflammations that I would usually get when following an omnivore diet. Those are, for instance, inflammation of my gums or my skin. Some studies [1, 2, 3] suggest that there might be a link between a vegan diet and reduced inflammatory markers. Some studies explain, though, that the observations are not definitive and further studies are needed to support this claim. What is definitive is that some meats negatively impact inflammatory markers in humans, as shown here. Especially red meats and poultry (and with that eggs) contain the omega-6 fat arachidonic acid which is shown to cause inflammation. This acid can't be found in vegetable sources. This could at the same time and potentially be disadvantageous for vegans as theses acids do have some benefits.
One other thing I definitely noticed is that I can process foods much quicker and easier now. I don't feel bloated, never have an upset stomach, and feel much lighter during my workouts with a strictly vegan diet. I can definitely feel the contrast on the rare occasion that I do consume some animal products, especially when they are greasy and overly spicy. Then, I get problems with my digestion and feel sluggish. I also notice that a plant-based diet helps me get through the day easier without fatigue. This could be due to the omnivore diets often being heavier. I barely consume any added fats and keep my meals light and natural. The same can't always be said about omnivore meals that potentially contain processed foods. But then again, this might have more to do with preparing one's own meals versus eating out. I noticed that I pretty much fully stopped eating out and that I prepare my own meals on a daily basis. Doing the same on an omnivore diet could yield the same benefits that I mentioned above.
One last thing that I would get off my chest is discussing some myths that go around in non-vegan communities. One thing I often hear from people that are open-minded and tried out a vegan diet before is something like "I tried the plant-based diet but after a couple of weeks I noticed a decline in mental and physical health. This surely has to do with something missing in plant-based diets that my body needs." Well, I would argue that it isn't the vegan diet in its broader sense that leads to such effects but rather the personal choice of a specific (vegan) diet. Becoming vegan by taking out all the animal products in your current diet without any substitutions and additional provisions is unsustainable. And I suspect that many people fail their transition because of that. Becoming vegan means informing oneself about macro- and micronutrients, one's own predespositions, and the importance of complete and well-balanced diets in general. And I recommend learning about this to anyone, even outside of veganism. I'm a big advocate of at least one protein-rich food source in each meal. This is something many people miss when not substituting animal products with plant-based products that are rich in proteins. Another example is the link of vegan diets and vitamin B12 deficiency. It is true that vegans do need to supplements vitamin B12 in some form if not mitigating the deficiency directly through certain foods. From my own observations, there seems to be a consensus around non-vegans that a vegan diet is incomplete and can therefore not be healthy for humans, because of the need for certain additional supplements. However, what most people don't know is that these deficiencies are more of a symptom from a society that is, in a nutritional sense, based on a heavy meat industry which fails to address needs for people with other diets rather than stemming from veganism as a root cause. Vitamin B12, for instance, cannot be synthesized by either plants or animals. Instead, animals (and humans alike) get vitamin B12 through microorganisms which are ingested with soil or bacteria. The reason vegans don't get enough vitamin B12 through a plant-based diet is mostly because of plants being processed, that is, washed, peeled, etc., and the soil and bacteria being removed in the process. Omnivores don't need to care about this as the animal products they ingest are rich in vitamin B12 from the raw plants the animals consumed during their life. This is just one example of the skewed perception that currently exists for some when thinking about pant-based diets. There are many more interesting facts and I suggest reading about if you are interested in the topic. Going further into detail about them here would go beyond the scope of this article.

Finally, I would like to say that just seven years ago I would have put people advocating vegan diets down as delusional. By informing myself about diets, tracking my health with regular blood samples, and gradually transitioning to a fully plant-based diet I established a sustainable way of veganism, for myself. There will definitely be nuances for other people with different physiologies. Or, a vegan diet might not be feasible at all for some people with certain predespositions or health issues. Nevertheless, and perhaps because of it, our health, it is imperative to learn about different diets, one's personal needs, and the possibilities of change.



The topic of climate change and environmental impacts is being discussed more than ever. And for a good reason. News about extreme weather phenomena around the globe are accumulating. These seem to be rising steadily and show correlation with the increase in the average global temeperature. Let's start with a chart known to all, the annual mean temperature trend. This one is taken from NASA:

Fig. 3.1 - Global land-ocean temperature index from 1880 to 2024.

The temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius are plotted on the y-axis over the years 1880 to 2024 on the x-axis. "[The] graph shows the change in global surface temperature compared to the long-term average from 1951 to 1980. Earth’s average surface temperature in 2024 was the warmest on record since recordkeeping began in 1880." But what does that mean? When looking at the plot, some people suggest that earth has had volatile temperature changes before. That is true, however, what is alarming is the speed at which we experience the current increase in global temperature. This research shows that "[t]he magnitude and rate [of] warming over the last 150 years far surpasses the magnitude and rate of changes over the last 24,000 years." Related: https://xkcd.com/1732/. If we plotted the average global temperature over a longer period, let's say the last billion years, the temperature increase we observed over the last few years would look like a vertical wall in our plot. This discontinuous trend could be a cause for concern.

To be continued...




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